Kishore Mahbubani's Advices to Indonesia regarding Ukraine

TheIndonesia.co - A former Singaporean senior diplomat said Indonesia must use its G20 presidency to initiate closed-door meeting between state leaders to “candidly” deliberate on the Ukraine war and to come up with a definitive solution.

During a virtual discussion on Wednesday, March 16, academic and geopolitical expert Kishore Mahbubani said Indonesia can take the initiative to encourage and push G20 leaders to find the urgently-needed formula to put an end to the Russian invasion of Ukraine as it has been impacting the world at large.

“It’s too early to tell what would be the long-term effect because the war is still carrying on, and we don’t know what the outcome is still going to be; this will be found out in three to four weeks,” Mahbubani said.

“I think this is where the chairmanship of Indonesia of the G20 becomes very, very important. I think when the first meeting of G20 leaders takes place under Indonesia’s chairmanship, it’ll be good for Indonesia to have a closed-door meeting – only among the leaders, no press, nobody else. And the leaders should ask themselves candidly on whether this war in Ukraine could have been prevented.”

The closed-door meeting, he added, can be a safe space for state leaders to discuss between themselves how they plan to handle the crisis – without the presence of the intense public scrutiny, particularly.

“I think if [state leaders] are speaking publicly, they have to attack each other because they have to stick to their domestic audiences. So, if [Joe] Biden is not seen criticizing [Vladimir] Putin publicly, his fellow Americans will say he’s very weak,” Mahbubani said.

Speaking about the economic impacts of the war, he also explained that Indonesia’s stance on the Ukraine war will not make any significant difference to the rising commodity prices it’s experiencing, since they’re determined by global the global market.

The professor mentioned that India, for example, has been neutral in the “contest between the United States-Russia on Ukraine”. While India is a member of the Quad (along with Australia, Japan, the US), it also has a good relation with Russia. Therefore, it chooses not to take side.

“But, Indian economy is too badly hit by the rising energy prices because India is a major importer of oil from the world, so it will suffer. This year was supposed to be a very good year for Indian economic growth, but now it won’t be so good because of the global commodity prices.”

That fact makes the idea of closed-door meeting becomes even more pressing because it can also be the platform for G20 countries to speak out to the US and Russia that the war is hurting global economy and creating suffering for people in different countries.

“Whether Indonesia takes side or not, [it will] still be affected by the slowdown of global economy, which is why if G20 leaders can persuade the US and Russia to stop the contest on Ukraine, the world economy will bounce back very fast, and commodity prices will go down,” Mahbubani concluded.